Carbon Dioxide Removal: Balancing Urgency with Scientific Unknowns
Active removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) through carbon dioxide capture (CDR) and sequestration, along with the aggressive reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is necessary to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions. Achieving meaningful CDR faces two major challenges: (i) Reducing the cost of CDR, which remains high for novel technologies even compared to the increasing cost of climate change, and (ii) Scaling up a portfolio of CDR technologies to a cumulative capacity of 10-100 times current levels to achieve Net Zero. It is therefore paramount that careful planning be applied in the interest of the public good to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
A phased approach is needed for the development and large-scale deployment of CDR. The immediate needs in the current and following decades are to eliminate all possible emissions through a transition to clean energy, as well as to protect and expand natural carbon sinks, while developing the technological and economic tools for additional carbon removal strategies. When R&D of novel technologies have produced reliable solutions for CDR, then their scaleup and deployment should be prioritized for achieving Net Zero and ultimately Net Negative emissions and restoring Earth’s atmosphere to an agreed safe level of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Active removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) through carbon dioxide capture (CDR) and sequestration, along with the aggressive reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is necessary to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions. Achieving meaningful CDR faces two major challenges: (i) Reducing the cost of CDR, which remains high for novel technologies even compared to the increasing cost of climate change, and (ii) Scaling up a portfolio of CDR technologies to a cumulative capacity of 10-100 times current levels to achieve Net Zero. It is therefore paramount that careful planning be applied in the interest of the public good to achieve Net Zero by 2050. MACA’s public policies recommendations are as follows:
1. Proven emission reduction strategies, i.e. the rapid and drastic (>80%) elimination of GHG emissions by replacement of fossil fuels as the source of energy throughout our economy by clean electricity, is imperative to limit global warming and concomitant development. The subsequent scaling of CDR must complement, not substitute, the decarbonization of the power sector and is needed to ultimately achieve Net Zero.
2. Given the low capacity of CDR, significant support for technological R&D is critical to scale up CDR to gigatonne levels. We support the development of a portfolio of CDR solutions through government support of nascent potential approaches, as no one or few CDR technologies have emerged as a panacea comparable to wind or solar power in clean energy.
3. Policymakers must consider the opportunity cost of CDR and the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) when evaluating the scaling of technologies and/or other climate mitigation strategies to ensure that public funds are directed toward effective solutions equitably. For instance, given the vast and known sequestration capacity of natural sinks, the protection of such biodiversity should be prioritized.
4. We need a shift in governance, policy and the financial environment for CDR to scale up legitimate CDR technologies. Establishing favorable policies, well-regulated marketplaces and rigorous Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) standards are vital for ensuring the credibility and effectiveness of CDR technologies, especially given the scientific uncertainties around some approaches.
5. Reallocation of fossil fuel subsidies towards CDR and renewable energy R&D is needed to accelerate the transition and create a more equitable climate policy. Currently, the financial burden primarily lies on startups that are incurring risk to scale critical climate technologies and, in turn, rely on marketplaces that provide insufficient incentive for effective and proven carbon removal.
6. When CDR technologies have matured in the longer-term, CDR will have to be scaled up by one (ten times greater) or more orders of magnitude to contribute significantly to the global goal of reaching Net Zero, and then Net Negative to restore the atmosphere.
A phased approach is needed for the development and large-scale deployment of CDR. The immediate needs in the current and following decades are to eliminate all possible emissions through a transition to clean energy, as well as to protect and expand natural carbon sinks, while developing the technological and economic tools for additional carbon removal strategies. When R&D of novel technologies have produced reliable solutions for CDR, then their scaleup and deployment should be prioritized for achieving Net Zero and ultimately Net Negative emissions and restoring Earth’s atmosphere to an agreed safe level of greenhouse gas concentrations.